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Prestige and probability and the process of ``branching''

For a description of the process of gaining prestige, losing prestige, becoming standardized and being ``extinct'', an appropriate mathematical model can be found in the probability theory. This model is called the Galton-Watson-Process,   or the process of Branching .

In a society there might be a random number N of speakers of a certain accent. Then there is the question: How many people will take this number of people as reference for theit own accent? This can be described in the following way:

Let tex2html_wrap_inline554 be a series of independent random variables taking values from tex2html_wrap_inline556 and having the same distribution. Those tex2html_wrap_inline558 will symbolise a number of people who directly derive their accent from one specific person. For this purpose here one may suppose that these random variables are discrete, that means in this context that the whole society is homogeneous in the way in which it gives prestige to a certain accent gif. The random variables share the same distribution and N -- the number of speakers of one accent -- is an independent random variable also taking values from tex2html_wrap_inline556. The total number of speakers taking the accent as their reference is described by tex2html_wrap_inline564 where -- as usual -- the empty sum equals 0. The random variables tex2html_wrap_inline566 share the same generating functiongif named f. g is the generating function of N. The generating function of tex2html_wrap_inline574 is tex2html_wrap_inline576 gif.

This generating function is needed to investigate the following Galton-Watson-Process. A society is investigated at discrete times tex2html_wrap_inline578. At the time n the number of speakers of a certain accent is tex2html_wrap_inline582; of course tex2html_wrap_inline582 is an independent random variable with values from tex2html_wrap_inline556. Every speaker of this accent serves as reference to another speaker, or does not use this accent any more in the next time-interval. This happens for every person individually with the same probability, which is the measurement value of the prestige of the accent. The number of people using the accent of a person i as reference is called tex2html_wrap_inline590 at the time n. tex2html_wrap_inline594, if nobody takes i as reference. The number tex2html_wrap_inline598 of people at the time (n+1) follows with tex2html_wrap_inline582 and tex2html_wrap_inline590 by
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As already mentioned the random variables tex2html_wrap_inline608 are independent of each other and all tex2html_wrap_inline590 share the same distribution. Let q be the generating function of tex2html_wrap_inline590 and tex2html_wrap_inline616 the generating function of tex2html_wrap_inline582. The combination of those generating functions results in
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The series tex2html_wrap_inline622 of random variables is called Galton-Watson-Chain or
-Process. Here tex2html_wrap_inline624 is the number of speakers of one accent at the beginning, which might be random. tex2html_wrap_inline626 is the probability that an accent disappears before time n.

tex2html_wrap_inline630 is the probability of extinction. To calculate tex2html_wrap_inline632 one might view the case of tex2html_wrap_inline634 first. As an abbreviation tex2html_wrap_inline636 is the number of persons using the accent of the first person as their reference.
displaymath638
tex2html_wrap_inline632 is one solution of the equation y=q(y) in the interval [0,1]. There are just few matching solutions; y=1 is one of them. But there might be one more:

For all tex2html_wrap_inline648 it is true that:
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So q is monotonic, growing and convex. If tex2html_wrap_inline654, then q is strictly convex. In this case besides y=1 there might be one more solution of the equation y=q(y) in the interval [0,1]. A second solution exist if and only if E(X)>1 or tex2html_wrap_inline666 gif.

To illustrate this for a tex2html_wrap_inline672 and tex2html_wrap_inline674 where P(X=m)=p gif and P(X=0)=1-p. Then tex2html_wrap_inline686 for all tex2html_wrap_inline688, and tex2html_wrap_inline690 is true if and only if tex2html_wrap_inline692 is true. If mp>1, then tex2html_wrap_inline632 is the only solution of tex2html_wrap_inline698 in the interval [0,1).

For instance be m=3 -- that means three persons taking one person as their reference -- and p>1/3. The equation tex2html_wrap_inline706 has the solution
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in [0,1). For this example let us assume that the probability of X to be 3 is 1/2 . This gives for tex2html_wrap_inline632 the value of X of approx. 0.6180 . This means that under this condition with the probability of tex2html_wrap_inline722 the accent will become ``extinct'' at some time in the future.

Labov's approach can result in a way to measure a certain prestige and the number of speakers. By the model of Galton-Waston Processes it becomes possible to anticipate a possible development of one specific accent in its social context.


next up previous contents index
Next: Hypercorrectionprestige and language Up: Prestige as a factor Previous: Prestige as a factor

Thorsten Trippel 1997